The Violence Forecast is back for the post-fight cleanup.
And boys, we cooked again.
UFC Vegas 118 gave us violence, drama, a last-second grappling squeeze, and one beautiful main event upset. We hit the Bonfim call. We hit the Iwo violence. We hit Brendan Allen by decision. We hit Bryce Mitchell in the most stressful way possible. The only thing that burned us was Fares Ziam, who dropped a decision to Tom Nolan.
So the final count is simple:
Violence Forecast: 4-1
Not perfect.
Still nasty.
Still very much alive.
UFC Vegas 118 was headlined by Gabriel Bonfim vs. Belal Muhammad, with the full main card seeing Bonfim beat Muhammad, Brendan Allen beat Edmen Shahbazyan, Tom Nolan beat Fares Ziam, Bryce Mitchell submit Santiago Luna, and Iwo Baraniewski stop Junior Tafa.
Final Violence Forecast Results
| Fight | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Iwo Baraniewski vs. Junior Tafa | Iwo by KO/TKO | Win — Iwo TKO, Round 1 |
| Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna | Bryce Mitchell by finish | Win — Mitchell submission, Round 3 |
| Fares Ziam vs. Tom Nolan | Ziam by decision | Loss — Nolan decision |
| Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan | Allen by decision | Win — Allen decision |
| Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim | Bonfim upset win | Win — Bonfim decision |
That moves the Violence Forecast from 19-3-1 to 23-4-1.
That is still a disgusting record.
That is still dangerous.
That is still the kind of heater where you start looking at the next card like, “Alright, who are we putting in the dirt this week?”
Iwo Baraniewski vs. Junior Tafa
We opened the Forecast calling for Iwo violence, and the undefeated monster delivered immediately.
Iwo Baraniewski beat Junior Tafa by first-round TKO, using leg kicks and follow-up shots to get Tafa out of there early.
That is exactly what we ordered.
No long read.
No slow feeling-out process.
No “let’s see how he looks in deep water.”
Iwo came in undefeated, fought like a guy who has no interest in boring decisions, and once he started chewing up Tafa’s lead leg, the writing was on the wall. The kick compromised Tafa, Iwo swarmed, and the ref had seen enough.
That’s Violence Forecast material.
This was the cleanest hit on the card. We said Iwo was bringing violence. He brought violence. End of discussion.
Forecast result: Win
Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna
This one was absolute stress.
Bryce Mitchell did what Bryce Mitchell does: he wrestled, controlled positions, made it ugly, and then somehow still waited until the last few seconds to cash the damn pick.
Mitchell submitted Santiago Luna by arm-triangle choke in Round 3 with just eight seconds left.
That is insane.
That is not just a win.
That is a “why are you doing this to my blood pressure?” win.
Luna deserves respect. He was undefeated, young, dangerous, and stepped into a tough spot. He did not come in scared. He fought. He made Bryce work. But Bryce’s grappling is Bryce’s grappling, and once he started getting to dominant positions, Luna was fighting uphill.
Still, eight seconds left is nasty work.
That’s the kind of pick that looks like it might turn into a bad beat, then suddenly Bryce squeezes the ticket back to life right before the horn.
Beautiful.
Terrifying.
But beautiful.
Forecast result: Win
Fares Ziam vs. Tom Nolan
Here’s the miss.
We took Fares Ziam by decision, thinking the ranked, cleaner, more polished fighter would manage the fight, stay sharp, and bank rounds.
Instead, Tom Nolan beat Ziam by unanimous decision, with all three judges scoring it 29-28.
That one is on the Forecast.
Ziam was supposed to be the safe pick. The structure pick. The “don’t overthink it” pick.
And of course, that’s the one MMA grabbed by the ankles and dragged into the woods.
Nolan came in confident, made the fight uncomfortable, and did enough to win the minutes that mattered. It wasn’t some nonsense robbery where we can scream into the void and blame the judges. Nolan earned it.
Credit to him.
But yeah, that one stung.
The Forecast didn’t miss the violence. It didn’t miss the main event upset. It missed the “safe” ranked guy.
Classic MMA.
Forecast result: Loss
Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan
Brendan Allen remains a weenie.
But he is a winning weenie.
We took Allen by decision, and that’s exactly what happened. Allen beat Edmen Shahbazyan by unanimous decision, with scores of 30-27, 30-27, and 29-28.
This fight was pure Brendan Allen.
Not always pretty.
Not always fun.
But annoying, effective, and built to win rounds.
Edmen is dangerous early. He still has power. He can still make fights scary if you let him get comfortable. But Allen did enough veteran stuff to take that away. He survived the moments he needed to survive, leaned on pressure, stayed composed, and kept the fight in his world.
That’s why we picked him.
You can dislike the style.
You can complain while watching it.
You can call him a weenie.
And then you still have to mark the pick green when he wins.
Forecast result: Win
Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim
Main event.
Big swing.
Big cash.
We took Gabriel Bonfim because the Belal hate was strong, the upset was live, and Bonfim felt like the younger, sharper, hungrier guy walking into the perfect spot.
And holy hell, he cashed it.
Bonfim beat Belal Muhammad by unanimous decision, 50-45 on all three scorecards.
That is not a robbery.
That is not a close call.
That is not “maybe the judges liked the younger guy.”
That is a full five-round shutout.
Lmao every clean shot he hit, he looked at his corner and laughed.
He was fully in control the entire fight, and it wasn't even close.
Bonfim didn’t just beat Belal. He made the fight look like the division was moving past him in real time. He stayed clean on the feet, chopped with kicks, boxed him up, and never let Belal turn it into that exhausting control fight he usually wants.
We described it as a striking clinic, with Bonfim using boxing and low kicks to dominate across five rounds. The win extended Bonfim’s streak to five, while Belal took his third straight loss.
That is a massive win.
Bonfim came in as the lower-ranked guy, took on the former champ, and left looking like a real problem at 170.
The Forecast called the upset.
The upset hit.
That’s the money read of the night.
Forecast result: Win
Big Takeaway
The big takeaway from UFC Vegas 118 is simple:
Gabriel Bonfim is not asking for permission anymore. He is kicking the welterweight door open.
Beating Belal Muhammad is one thing.
Shutting him out 50-45 across the board is different.
Belal is a former paper weight champion. He is durable. He is experienced. He is usually the kind of guy who turns fights into an ugly wrestling and pressure maze where opponents get tired, frustrated, and stuck.
Bonfim never let him build that fight.
He stayed sharp. He stayed composed. He touched him up. He slowed him down. He made Belal look like the old guard getting passed by the next wave.
That’s the kind of win that changes how people talk about you.
For the Violence Forecast, the takeaway is also clear:
We had the card read right.
Iwo was violence.
Bryce was the grappling answer.
Allen was the grind pick.
Bonfim was the upset.
Ziam was the only miss, and honestly, if you’re going to go 4-1, you can live with losing one decision swing in the middle of the card.
The main event was the big one.
We called Bonfim.
Bonfim cooked.
That’s a win you hang on the wall.
Final Card Vibe
The final card vibe was Apex chaos with a main event changing of the guard.
Iwo came out like a man allergic to second rounds and chopped Junior Tafa down.
Bryce Mitchell made everyone sweat until the final seconds, then snatched the arm-triangle like he was trying to give the Forecast a heart attack.
Tom Nolan ruined the perfect night and reminded us that the “safe pick” is usually where MMA hides the rake.
Brendan Allen did Brendan Allen things, which means we complained and he won anyway.
And Gabriel Bonfim walked into the main event against a former champion and made five rounds look like a statement.
That’s the kind of card that moves names.
Bonfim moved up.
Belal moved into a very uncomfortable conversation.
Iwo kept looking like violence in human form.
Bryce stayed alive at bantamweight.
Allen stayed annoying and effective.
And the Violence Forecast took one scratch but kept rolling.
Final record: 4-1 on the night.
All-time Violence Forecast: 23-4-1.
Still nasty.
Still swinging.
Still hunting bodies.
White House card next, boys.
LFG.