UFC Vegas 118 Preview: Bonfim Hunts the Upset, Iwo Brings First-Round Violence, and the Forecast Keeps Swinging

The Violence Forecast is back, boys.

It’s Saturday, the UFC is back at the Apex, and we’ve got another card to throw picks at like degenerates with a slightly concerning amount of confidence.

And? A normal fucking start time for once.

This one is UFC Vegas 118, headlined by Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim at welterweight. The co-main is Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan, and the main card also gives us Fares Ziam vs. Tom Nolan, Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna, and Iwo Baraniewski vs. Junior Tafa. The official UFC listing has Belal and Bonfim both making 170.5, Allen and Shahbazyan at middleweight, Ziam and Nolan at lightweight, Mitchell and Luna at bantamweight, and Iwo/Tafa at light heavyweight.

And yeah, we’re coming in hot.

The Violence Forecast is sitting at 19-3-1, so the pressure is officially on. This is where we either keep cooking or immediately get humbled by some Apex weirdness.

Main Card Odds

Odds move around depending on the book, but this is the general board I’m seeing for the fights we’re picking:

Belal/Bonfim is basically tight at the top, Allen and Ziam are solid favorites, Mitchell is favored but not by some insane number, and Iwo is the heavy favorite against Tafa.

Iwo Baraniewski vs. Junior Tafa

We’re opening the forecast with Iwo Baraniewski by KO.

This dude is 8-0, and the record screams violence. He’s got knockouts, submissions, and from the look of it, he’s not exactly interested in taking the scenic route. A bunch of those finishes are early, and when you’re dealing with light heavyweights, early violence is always on the menu.

Junior Tafa is dangerous because he’s a Tafa. That family throws heat, and if you stand in front of him acting cute, he can absolutely crack you. But Tafa also stepped in on short notice, and he had that little weigh-in adventure where he initially came in at 206.5 before making 206 on the second attempt.

That’s enough for me to lean into the undefeated killer.

Iwo keeps the train moving, gets in his face, finds the shot, and puts another finish on the résumé.

Official pick: Iwo Baraniewski by KO

Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna

I love Bryce Mitchell.

I really do.

But every time we pick a fan favorite off vibes, the Violence Forecast gets punished like we owe the MMA gods money. So this time, we’re going with the stats and taking Mitchell by finish. Almost had y'all, huh? 

Luna is 8-0, stepping in against Mitchell after Victor Henry withdrew, he came in on short notice as an undefeated prospect. Seven finishes, and Luna has been talking like a dude who is not remotely intimidated by Bryce’s wrestling.

That’s dangerous.

Now, this is a massive step up. Bryce is not some random guy you just walk through. His grappling is real, his experience is real, and if Luna gets stuck underneath him, this pick can get ugly fast.

But are we’re betting on the young undefeated dog to make a statement?

Luna keeps it chaotic, survives the grappling threats, and catches Bryce in a scramble or exchange.

He's not ready for this challenge and we'll soon see why.

Official pick: Bryce Mitchell by finish

Fares Ziam vs. Tom Nolan

This one feels cleaner.

Give me Fares Ziam by decision.

Ziam is ranked around that No. 14 lightweight range, and he’s the more polished guy here. He’s long, technical, composed, and I think he’s going to be able to manage Tom Nolan over three rounds.

Nolan has danger. He’s not just a body. But this feels like one of those fights where Ziam’s experience and structure win minutes. He doesn’t need to go out there and force some wild finish. He just needs to stay sharp, keep Nolan at the end of his strikes, avoid getting dragged into a stupid firefight, and bank rounds.

The oddsmakers agree he’s the clear favorite, sitting around -325 in one betting guide.

Sometimes the boring pick is the right pick.

Official pick: Fares Ziam by decision

Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan

Co-main time.

We’re taking Brendan Allen by decision.

Do I think Brendan Allen is kind of a weenie? Yes.

Am I still picking him? Also yes.

Allen trains with absolute killers, including that Khamzat orbit of monsters, and you don’t come out of those rooms soft. He’s also just the more reliable guy here. Edmen Shahbazyan is dangerous, and if he starts fast, he can absolutely make this interesting. But Allen’s grappling, pace, and experience should be enough to control the fight.

MMAmania had Allen around -218, so the market is giving him the favorite respect too.

I don’t think Allen needs to finish him. I think he survives the early danger, turns it into a grind, and wins rounds.

Classic “annoying but effective” Brendan Allen.

Official pick: Brendan Allen by decision

Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim

Main event.

And we’re going full hater logic.

I hate watching Belal. I don’t care. I said what I said.

Mothafucker is BORINGGGG!!!!!

Belal Muhammad is "good". Obviously. Former "champion", elite cardio, pressure, wrestling, experience, all that. He’s not some bum. Eh lmao. He’s ranked No. 7, and he’s trying to stop a two-fight skid, while Bonfim comes in ranked No. 15 and looking to jump into the bigger conversation. 

But I’m riding with Gabriel Bonfim.

Bonfim is younger, dangerous, confident, and 19-1. He’s on a four-fight win streak, and this is exactly the kind of fight where a rising guy can flip the division conversation if he pulls it off.

Is it risky? Of course.

That's why i'm here, baby lol.

Belal can absolutely make this ugly. He can cage-hug, wrestle, clinch, pressure, and make Bonfim fight his fight. That’s the fear.

He may even try to cuddle for 25 whole fuckin' minutes, too.

But screw it.

The Violence Forecast needs a little disrespect. We’re not here to pick five safe favorites and go home. We’re here for the upset.

Bonfim hurts him, threatens submissions, keeps Belal from settling into that exhausting grind, and steals this thing.

Official pick: Gabriel Bonfim by upset win

Final Violence Forecast

Here’s the slip:

That gives us two clean finish calls, two decision/control picks, and one main event upset because the Belal hate is stronger than fear.

Final Card Vibe

The vibe here is Apex violence with upset seasoning.

Iwo feels like the violence lock. Luna is the risky dog with upside, facing a seasoned vet. Ziam is the steady ranked guy. Allen is the annoying grinder who probably wins even if we complain about him the whole time. And Bonfim is the “why not, fuck it” main event swing.

The Violence Forecast is 19-3-1.

We’re not protecting the record.

We’re attacking with it.

Iwo by KO. Bryce by finish. Ziam by decision. Allen by decision. Bonfim pulls the upset.

Let’s see if the forecast keeps finding bodies.

Welcome to the Violence Forecast.

Lock it the FUCK in, boys.