Well boys, the Violence Forecast stayed hot.
UFC Vegas 117 is in the books, and the Dead Roots main card picks went 5-1 on winners.
That moves the official Violence Forecast record to 14-3 overall.
We came into this card off a 4-1 night at UFC 328, sitting at 9-2 overall, and UFC Vegas 117 looked like one of those weird little APEX cards where casuals pretend nothing matters and then the fights end up being sneaky violent as hell.
And yeah.
That’s exactly what happened.
Khaos Williams brought the violence early. Bernardo Sopaj showed he had more than just first-round craziness. Modestas Bukauskas did veteran work. Doo Ho Choi cashed as the underdog and reminded everybody Korean Superboy is still dangerous. Arnold Allen handled the main event like a top featherweight who needed to stop the bleeding.
The only asshole who ruined the perfect night?
Malcom Wellmaker.
AGAIN.
And honestly, that one hurt.
Not because Juan Diaz looked bad. He didn’t. Diaz showed up, handled the moment, took the back, and choked him out like he had no interest in being somebody’s rebound fight.
But damn.
That 6-0 was sitting there.
The perfect card was alive.
Then Wellmaker got his back taken and the whole parlay-looking dream got put in a rear-naked choke.
That’s MMA.
Khaos Williams Books the Violence Early
The main card opened with Khaos Williams, and the pick was simple:
Khaos by KO.
Not decision.
Not “close fight where he edges it.”
Violence.
And Khaos delivered exactly that.
Williams stopped Nikolay Veretennikov in the first round, finishing him by TKO at 3:31. That is about as clean as a Violence Forecast call gets. We said book the violence early, and the man opened the main card like he owed the casino money.
This was the read from the preview: Khaos didn’t need to be perfect. He just needed one clean moment where Veretennikov’s chin ended up in the wrong zip code.
And that’s basically what happened.
Heavy shots.
Pressure.
Damage.
Ref steps in.
Thank you very much.
That was not just a winner hit.
That was the tone-setter.
Khaos had been needing a reset spot, and he got one. He reminded people that even if his recent run has been up and down, the power is still real. You give that dude the right pocket, the right opening, and the right opponent standing in front of him too long, somebody is getting folded.
The Violence Forecast started 1-0.
Beautiful.
Bernardo Sopaj Says Screw Your Decision Pick
Next up, Bernardo Sopaj took on Timothy Cuamba.
The pick was Sopaj by decision.
The winner hit.
The method missed.
And honestly, I’m not mad about that at all.
Sopaj got it done by second-round rear-naked choke, which is better than grinding out a decision anyway. In the preview, the big question was whether Sopaj could pace himself better after looking good early in his UFC debut before gassing and getting smoked late.
That was the concern.
Could he manage the engine?
Could he fight smart?
Could he avoid turning into wet cement if the first-round storm didn’t finish the job?
This time, he didn’t need three rounds.
He found the back, locked in the choke, and cashed the winner.
That’s a nice bounce-back type of performance. Not just because he won, but because he did it in a way that answers some of the questions. He showed there’s more there than “talented guy who fights like a maniac until the gas light comes on.”
Sopaj has finishing instincts.
That was clear before.
But now he has a UFC win to go with it.
Violence Forecast moves to 2-0.
Modestas Bukauskas Gets It Done the Ugly Veteran Way
This one was the sweat.
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards was the experience pick.
The logic was pretty simple going in: Bukauskas had already been in there with real UFC names, had wins over Paul Craig and Ion Cutelaba, and was facing a debuting opponent on short notice. That is a rough spot for Edwards.
The pick was Bukauskas by decision.
And guess what?
Bukauskas won by split decision.
That is a direct hit.
Winner hit.
Method hit.
Bukauskas did enough.
Two judges gave it to him 29-28, one judge had it 29-28 the other way, and we walked away with the right side of the split.
At that point, the Violence Forecast was 3-0.
The perfect night was alive.
And then Malcom Wellmaker walked into the cage and pissed on the fire.
Malcom Wellmaker Drops the Ball, Juan Diaz Steals the Moment
This was the miss.
The pick was Malcom Wellmaker by KO/TKO.
The result was Juan Diaz by second-round rear-naked choke.
That is not a little method miss.
That is a full “throw the ticket in the trash and stare at the wall” miss.
Wellmaker was the heavy favorite. He was supposed to come in, rebound, remind people why the hype was there, and put away a debuting opponent. Instead, Diaz came in like he had no interest in being a stepping stone.
Credit where it’s due: Juan Diaz fought like a dog.
He didn’t freeze. He didn’t fight scared. He didn’t walk in like some guy happy to be there. He matched the moment, stayed composed, dragged Wellmaker into danger, took the back, and finished the damn fight.
That was legit.
But from the pick side?
Brutal.
Wellmaker now has a problem. Losing once is one thing. Losing back-to-back is another. Losing to another newcomer when you’re supposed to be one of the prospects people are watching? That’s where the questions start getting loud.
And the worst part is that this was the only miss on the card.
The only one.
The 6-0 night died right there.
Rear-naked choke.
Second round.
Thank you for nothing, Malcom.
Again.
Violence Forecast drops to 3-1.
Perfect night dead.
But the card was still very much alive.
Korean Superboy Cashes as the Dog
This was one of my favorite calls on the card.
Doo Ho Choi was the underdog against Daniel Santos, and I rolled with Choi.
The pick was Choi by decision.
The result?
Choi by second-round TKO.
Again, method missed, winner hit, and I will gladly eat that one.
Because when the underdog pick wins by finish, nobody gives a shit that you thought it was going to the cards.
Choi got him out of there.
That is a clean dog hit.
I liked Choi in this spot because there was still a path for him to win if the fight turned into the type of banger he’s lived inside for years. Santos is dangerous, but Choi has been in those firefights. He understands that chaos. He has the timing, the veteran feel, and the willingness to bite down and make it ugly.
And he did more than survive.
He finished.
That one felt good because it wasn’t just taking a favorite and nodding along with the books. That was a real side taken. Choi was plus money, people were leaning Santos, and Korean Superboy said, “Nah, I’m still here.”
That’s why these cards are fun.
Sometimes the old-school fan favorite still has one in the chamber.
Violence Forecast goes to 4-1.
One fight left.
Arnold Allen in the main event.
Arnold Allen Handles Business and Saves the Main Event Pick
The main event was Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa.
The pick was Allen by decision.
Winner hit.
Method hit.
Allen won by unanimous decision, with the cards coming in 50-45, 50-45, and 49-46.
That is exactly the kind of main event pick you want. No split-decision heart attack. No weird judge nonsense. No “maybe we got away with one.”
Allen handled business.
Costa was on a heater coming in, and this was a dangerous spot. He had momentum, confidence, youth, and that “I’m about to crash the rankings” energy. Allen, meanwhile, needed this one badly after losing three of his last four.
That is a pressure spot.
And Arnold fought like a veteran who understood the assignment.
He hurt Costa early, kept landing the left hand, pushed through the kick-heavy offense, and took over enough rounds to make the cards clear. It wasn’t some insane viral finish, but it was the kind of win Allen needed. Calm, professional, sharp, and badly necessary.
The featherweight division is cruel as hell.
You lose a few fights at the top and everyone starts acting like you’re dead.
Allen reminded people he is not dead.
He’s still a serious problem.
And for the Violence Forecast, that was the final stamp.
5-1 on the night.
14-3 overall.
The heater rolls on.
Final Violence Forecast Results
Nikolay Veretennikov vs. Khaos Williams
Pick: Khaos Williams
Result: Khaos Williams by first-round TKO
Winner hit
Method hit
Timothy Cuamba vs. Bernardo Sopaj
Pick: Bernardo Sopaj
Result: Sopaj by second-round rear-naked choke
Winner hit
X Method missed
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards
Pick: Modestas Bukauskas
Result: Bukauskas by split decision
Winner hit
Method hit
Malcom Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz
Pick: Malcom Wellmaker
Result: Juan Diaz by second-round rear-naked choke
X Winner missed
Doo Ho Choi vs. Daniel Santos
Pick: Doo Ho Choi
Result: Choi by second-round TKO
Winner hit
X Method missed
Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa
Pick: Arnold Allen
Result: Allen by unanimous decision
Winner hit
Method hit
Final record: 5-1 on winners.
Overall Violence Forecast record: 14-3.
That is 82.4%, on three cards.
The Big Takeaway
UFC Vegas 117 was one of those cards that looked small on paper but did exactly what it needed to do.
Khaos Williams opened the main card with violence.
Bernardo Sopaj got a real UFC win and showed there’s something there.
Bukauskas survived the short-notice debuting opponent trap.
Juan Diaz announced himself and ruined our perfect night, the bastard.
Doo Ho Choi cashed as the dog and reminded people why fight fans still love him.
Arnold Allen closed the show like a real top featherweight.
And the Violence Forecast went 5-1.
That’s the story.
The only thing keeping this from being a perfect night was Malcom Wellmaker getting backpacked and choked out by a guy who was supposed to be the debuting test, not the damn answer key.
But that’s MMA.
You can read five fights perfectly, and then one guy gives up his back and nukes the clean sweep.
Still, we move.
UFC 328 was 4-1.
UFC Vegas 117 was 5-1.
The overall record is now 14-3.
The Dead Roots UFC heater is alive, the Violence Forecast is gaining steam, and the blog record is starting to look nasty as hell.