The Violence Forecast is back, boys.

After UFC 328 gave us a 4-1 night on main card winners (9-2 total), we roll into UFC Vegas 117 with the heater still alive and a main card that honestly has more fun than people might be giving it credit for.

Is this some giant PPV monster? No.

Is this one of those APEX cards where a bunch of casuals will scroll past it and pretend it doesn’t matter? Probably.

But if you actually watch fights, this card has some sick little pockets of violence. Khaos Williams is here. Malcom Wellmaker is here. Korean Superboy is back in a veteran banger. Modestas Bukauskas gets a short-notice debuting opponent. Bernardo Sopaj gets a real spot to show what he is. And Melquizael Costa gets his first UFC main event against Arnold Allen.

That’s not bad at all.

UFC Vegas 117 goes down Saturday, May 16, from the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, with the main card on Paramount+ at 8 p.m. ET. The six-fight main card is Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa, Doo Ho Choi vs. Daniel Santos, Malcom Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz, Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards, Timothy Cuamba vs. Bernardo Sopaj, and Nikolay Veretennikov vs. Khaos Williams. All 26 fighters on the card made weight Friday, so the whole thing is locked and loaded.

Main Card Odds

Odds can move depending on book and timing, but these are the full main card moneylines listed by Fightful via MyBookie: Arnold Allen -132 vs. Melquizael Costa +103, Doo Ho Choi +137 vs. Daniel Santos -177, Malcom Wellmaker -295 vs. Juan Diaz +220, Modestas Bukauskas -370 vs. Christian Edwards +265, Timothy Cuamba +123 vs. Bernardo Sopaj -158, and Nikolay Veretennikov -118 vs. Khaos Williams -107.

Now let’s get into the violence.

Nikolay Veretennikov vs. Khaos Williams

We’re opening the main card with Khaos Williams, and that name still fits like a glove.

Khaos is one of those dudes where the backstory and the fighting style match up perfectly. The man has been built for conflict for a long time. You read about him and it’s immediately like, “Oh yeah, this guy has been fucking people up since before the UFC cameras found him.”

That old story about him flooring another teenager in a street fight and then shaking hands after? That’s such a Khaos Williams origin story it almost sounds fake. Just Detroit chaos with sportsmanship at the end. Beautiful.

But this is a big fight for him.

Khaos comes in 15-5 overall and 6-4 in the UFC, and the recent form is not exactly clean. He has not been stacking wins lately, but the power is still real, and that’s the whole danger with him. He does not need to win a perfect technical fight. He needs one clean moment where the other guy’s chin ends up in the wrong zip code.

Veretennikov is tough, but he’s also an older fighter who’s 2-3 in the UFC. That matters here. If you’re giving Khaos Williams an opponent who has been hittable and isn’t some young undefeated cardio freak, I’m going to lean into the chaos.

The line is basically a pick’em: Veretennikov -118, Khaos -107. That tells you the books don’t see a massive gap here.

I do.

Not because Khaos is perfect. He’s not.

But because this feels like a reset spot. He needs a win, he needs a statement, and he has the kind of hands that can turn a close fight into a highlight before the crowd even finishes blinking.

Pick: Khaos Williams by KO.

Book the violence early.

Timothy Cuamba vs. Bernardo Sopaj

Next up, we’ve got Timothy Cuamba vs. Bernardo Sopaj.

This one is interesting because Sopaj’s UFC sample is still tiny, but I liked what I saw before he fell apart late in his UFC debut. Yeah, he got knocked out. That’s the ugly part. But before he gassed, there were real flashes. Movement, aggression, confidence, and enough offense to make you think there’s something there if he manages the gas tank better.

That’s the key here.

Sopaj cannot fight like a maniac for two rounds and then turn into wet cement in the third. That’s how you lose fights you’re winning. But if he learned from that, if the pacing is better, if he doesn’t blow the whole engine trying to make a statement early, I think he has the better upside.

Cuamba is no scrub. He has won two straight, including a second-round stoppage over Roberto Romero, and his UFC record currently sits at 2-2. Sopaj, meanwhile, has 10 finishes in 12 pro wins, so the finishing instinct is absolutely there. 

The odds have Sopaj favored at -158 with Cuamba at +123.

That sounds about right to me.

Cuamba is the American, he’s probably going to be live, and this might get dicey if Sopaj starts to slow down. But I think Bernardo gets the better of the exchanges early and does enough to bank rounds or find a finish.

Pick: Bernardo Sopaj by decision.

Could see a late scare, but I’m riding Sopaj.

Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards

This one is all about experience.

Modestas Bukauskas is not some world-beater, but he is a real UFC-level dude who has been in the fire. He has notable recent wins over Paul Craig and Ion Cutelaba, and the only loss in that stretch came against Nikita Krylov — a guy who has been around the UFC since 2013 and has seen every type of violence the sport has to offer.

That’s a respectable run.

Christian Edwards is stepping in here on short notice after Rodolfo Bellato withdrew, and he’s making his UFC debut after a recent win over UFC veteran Jake Collier. Edwards is coming out of Jackson Wink, so he’s not just some random body they found in the parking lot. He’s worth watching. But debuting on short notice against a seasoned UFC light heavyweight is a nasty ask.

The odds show that too. Bukauskas is a big favorite at -370, while Edwards sits at +265.

That’s steep, but understandable.

Bukauskas has been here. He knows the pace. He knows the lights. He knows what it feels like to get cracked by UFC-level guys and still keep working.

Edwards might have moments. He might be dangerous early. Debuting guys can be weird because there’s less tape and sometimes they fight with that “nothing to lose” energy.

But over 15 minutes, I trust the UFC veteran.

Pick: Modestas Bukauskas by decision.

Wouldn’t shock me if he finds a finish, but I’ll call the controlled veteran win.

Malcom Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz

Now this one right here?

This is my Fight of the Night pick.

Malcom Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz is a striker’s delight. This is the fight where both guys should be walking into the middle like, “Alright, let’s see whose shit works first.”

Wellmaker is coming off a rough first loss, and honestly, that might be exactly what he needed. Sometimes a young nasty striker needs to get touched up once to remember that urgency matters. You can’t just float through fights because you’re talented. You have to go take the damn thing.

Settle down, and lock the fuck in buddy.

And Juan Diaz is coming in with that Contender Series violence attached to his name. Spinning back elbow, big moment, highlight energy — that’s the kind of stuff that gets people watching immediately.

But I’m staying with Wellmaker.

I love this kid’s style. He’s nasty, composed when he’s on, and there’s something about him that gives me Benson Henderson vibes.

The odds have Wellmaker as a heavy favorite at -295, with Diaz coming back at +220.

I don’t love laying that kind of juice in a fight that could turn into a firefight, but as a straight pick, I get it. Wellmaker is the more proven side and should be the sharper fighter if he comes in focused.

Diaz is live because wild strikers are always live.

But I think Wellmaker rebounds in a big way.

Pick: Malcom Wellmaker by TKO/KO.

Fight of the Night potential. Violence meter high.

Doo Ho Choi vs. Daniel Santos

This is an OG banger.

Doo Ho Choi, the Korean Superboy, is one of those names that still makes old fight fans perk up. If you watched that era, you know. The guy has been in absolute wars. He’s been beloved for years because he fights like entertainment was written into his contract.

But Daniel Santos is no easy out.

This is one of those veteran fights where both guys have been hard to beat lately. One hasn’t lost in four years, the other in six. That’s a wild stat for two dudes who have been around the UFC fire.

I love Korean Superboy. Always have.

Underdog is crazy, book Choi here.

Santos is the favorite at -177, with Choi at +137. That feels fair because Choi is dangerous, but Santos might be the guy who can make the fight uglier, busier, and more judge-friendly.

Choi’s path is timing and damage. Land clean, hurt Santos, create one of those “holy shit” moments.

Santos’ path is pressure, variety, and not letting Choi have the clean striking match he wants.

I think Choi gets it done in a close one.

Pick: Choi by decision

Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa

Main event time.

Arnold Allen vs. Melquizaela

Costa is on a real heater, and he’s talking like a guy who believes this is the breakout moment. He told a reporter he expects to “steal the show” while the UFC goes head-to-head with the Rousey vs. Carano Netflix event, and he’s openly saying a win over Arnold Allen could fast-track him toward a title shot.

That is big energy.

And he needs it, because Arnold Allen is not some random main event body. Allen is still ranked No. 8 in MMA Fighting’s Global Rankings at featherweight, while Costa is No. 13. Both weighed 145.5 for the five-round non-title main event.

Allen is the favorite for a reason.

He’s experienced, technical, durable, and he’s fought elite guys. He’s not going to be shocked by the moment. He’s not going to just fall apart because Costa throws heat early.

But Costa has the juice right now.

He’s dynamic. He’s aggressive. He throws with bad intentions. He has a real story behind him, and there’s something about a fighter in that first main event spot where the whole career can shift in one night. Some guys freeze there.

Costa feels like the type who gets sharper.

The odds are close depending on book. Fightful/MyBookie has Allen -132 and Costa +103, while WagerTalk’s Caesars line had Allen -154 and Costa +120. Either way, Costa is the underdog, but not some massive longshot.

I don’t think this is easy. Allen can absolutely win rounds with cleaner work, experience, and pacing. Five rounds is also the big question for Costa. Can he keep that explosiveness late? Can he avoid getting too wild? Can he win minutes instead of just moments?

Those are real concerns.  

Allen by decision.

Final Violence Forecast

Nikolay Veretennikov vs. Khaos Williams
Pick: Khaos Williams by KO

Timothy Cuamba vs. Bernardo Sopaj
Pick: Bernardo Sopaj by decision

Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards
Pick: Modestas Bukauskas by decision

Malcom Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz
Pick: Malcom Wellmaker by TKO/KO

Doo Ho Choi vs. Daniel Santos
Pick: Doo Ho Choi by decision

Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa
Pick: Arnold Allen by decision

Final Card Vibe

This is sneaky good.

Not every UFC card needs a belt or a giant press conference disaster to be worth watching. Sometimes the best cards are the ones where REAL fight fans know there’s violence hiding in the middle. That's us.

Khaos Williams could send someone to another dimension.
Sopaj gets a chance to prove the gas tank is better.
Bukauskas gets the veteran assignment against a short-notice debuting threat.
Wellmaker and Diaz might just throw down like a mothafuca in the best way possible.
Choi and Santos is veteran violence with real respect attached.
And Costa gets the biggest moment of his UFC career against Arnold Allen.

That’s a fye fight night.

The Violence Forecast has been hot, but MMA loves kicking hot streaks in the teeth. So we’ll see if the reads stay sharp or if this sport does what it does and turns the whole damn card upside down.

But the picks are locked.

Khaos by KO.
Sopaj by decision.
Bukauskas by decision.
Wellmaker by KO.
Choi by decision.
Allen by decision.

Lock it in, boys.