UFC Macau Reaction: 5-0-1 on Picks, Song Chokes Out Figgy, and the Violence Forecast Moves to 19-3-1

The Violence Reaction is back, boys.

And apparently it does not give a fook what time the card starts.

UFC Macau came through at an ungodly hour, and while half of us were dead asleep like responsible adults with jobs, the picks were out there doing damage. We came into this card swinging heavy on finishes, riding a little bias in the main event, and saying Song Yadong was going to put the old horse away one way or another.

Well, he did not knock him out.

He did something even funnier.

Song Yadong submitted Deiveson Figueiredo with a guillotine choke at 4:42 of Round 2, giving him one of the biggest wins of his career and handing the Violence Forecast another main event win. The full main card also gave us Alonzo Menifield smashing Zhang Mingyang, Sergei Pavlovich nuking Tallison Teixeira in 39 seconds, Kai Asakura smoking Cameron Smotherman in the first, Jake Matthews cruising by decision, and Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji ending in a no contest from an accidental low blow.

So yeah.

We did not just survive Macau.

We walked out 5-0-1 on winner picks.

The only weird one was Su vs. Perez, and that was a no contest, so I’m not eating an L for a fight ending because someone got kicked in the hardware. Which he was dominating in too smh. That’s a void in my book. The Violence Forecast moves from 14-3 to 19-3-1.

Final Violence Forecast Results

That’s a good damn card for the forecast.

And honestly, the best part is the Menifield pick. That was the dog with teeth. Zhang was the favorite, people were expecting the younger Chinese light heavyweight to handle business, and instead Alonzo walked in there and blew the whole script up with a first-round TKO. Menifield finished Zhang at 4:14 of Round 1, and that was exactly the kind of ugly power-dog violence we were hunting.

Song Yadong: Main Event Pick Cashes, Card Collection Lives

Let’s start at the top.

I said I was biased. I said I love Song. I said I collect his UFC cards, so I don’t care who he fights — I want him to win.

And the man delivered.

Song submitted Figueiredo late in the second round with a guillotine choke, which is hilarious because we went in calling for the knockout. But the spirit of the pick was right: Song was younger, sharper, faster, and I thought he was going to put Figgy away. He did exactly that, just with a choke instead of a coffin shot.

That’s almost better.

Because now it’s not just “Song can crack.”

Now it’s “Song can hurt you, scramble with you, and snatch your neck if you give him the opening.”

That’s huge for him.

He just submitted one of the best jiu-jitsu fighters ever.

Figueiredo is not some random old dude off the regional scene. He’s a former champion, dangerous everywhere, and still nasty enough to ruin somebody’s night. But Song needed this kind of win badly, especially after the O’Malley loss. He came back, fought in China, got the main event spotlight, and finished a former champion. That’s how you keep your name alive near the top of bantamweight.

So no, the KO didn’t land.

But Song won by finish.

The cards are safe.

The bias is vindicated.

To the moon, boys.

Alonzo Menifield: The Dog Pick With a Damn Hammer

This was the pick that made me feel like a genius.

I said Zhang was dangerous, but Menifield had the kind of power where he only needed one moment. That was the whole read.

And that’s exactly what happened.

Menifield came in as the underdog and stopped Zhang in the first round. He pressured him, got his respect, and then cracked him. That is classic Alonzo Menifield: it might not always be the cleanest technical masterpiece, but the power is real, the threat is real, and if he finds the chin, the night changes fast.

That’s why you take dogs like that.

Not because they’re safer.

Because they’re live as hell.

Menifield didn’t need a 15-minute tactical seminar. He needed to make it nasty, force Zhang into the fire, and land the shot that mattered.

He did.

Forecast cashes, baby.

Sergei Pavlovich: Heavyweight Violence in 39 Seconds

This one was almost too easy to write up afterward.

We picked Sergei Pavlovich by finish, and the man needed 39 seconds to get it done.

That is disgusting.

Tallison Teixeira was unbeaten, huge, and dangerous, but Sergei is a different kind of problem when he gets rolling. Heavyweight MMA is always chaos, but some guys bring a different level of “do not blink or someone is going unconscious.” Sergei is one of those guys.

He hit Teixeira, followed up, and that was it.

Thirty-nine seconds.

Pick cashed before some people even found the stream.

That’s exactly why the Violence Forecast exists.

Kai Asakura: Welcome Back to Bantamweight, Brotha

Kai Asakura needed a statement.

He got one.

We picked Kai by finish, and he knocked out Cameron Smotherman in the first round. 1:50 of Round 1, Kai got in, got violent, and got out fast. 

That was a huge win for him.

After the flyweight experiment didn’t go the way he wanted, moving back to bantamweight and immediately starching a guy is exactly how you remind people who you are. Speed, aggression, timing, and that RIZIN violence translated beautifully here.

This was one of the cleanest picks on the card.

Kai by finish.

Bang bang. 

Jake Matthews: Veteran Shit, Decision Cashed

Not every pick needs blood on the canvas.

Sometimes you just need a veteran to be a veteran.

And we called it.

Jake Matthews beat Carlston Harris by unanimous decision, with scorecards of 30-25, 30-27, 30-27, which is about as clear as it gets. We picked Matthews by decision because that felt like the lane: experience, composure, winning minutes, and not getting dragged into something stupid.

That’s exactly what happened.

Matthews has been around forever, and fights like this are where that experience matters. He didn’t need a SportsCenter knockout. He needed to control the fight, stay responsible, and walk out with the win.

Mothafuca' is solid.

Pick cashed clean, baby.

Su vs. Perez: The Groin Shot Void Special

This one was cursed.

I took Sumudaerji by KO because I liked the cleaner striking and the upset potential. Instead, the fight ended as a no contest in Round 2 after an accidental low blow.

What are we supposed to do with that?

Nothing.

That’s a void.

No win, no loss, no shame. The Violence Forecast doesn’t take Ls for accidental groin destruction. That’s just fight-game weirdness.

And he was dominating statistically which is even more annoying.

The Big Takeaway

The big takeaway is simple:

The Violence Forecast is hot as hell right now.

We went 5-0-1 on winner picks, hit multiple finishes, nailed the Menifield dog shot, got the Jake Matthews decision right, and even though Song didn’t win by KO, he still finished Figgy in the main event.

That’s a strong card.

But beyond the record, this card had actual movement.

Song Yadong got a massive main event win and showed another layer to his game. Kai Asakura finally looked like the version people were excited about. Sergei Pavlovich reminded everybody that heavyweight power is still heavyweight power. Alonzo Menifield wrecked the favorite in enemy territory. Jake Matthews did veteran work. Even the no contest added some classic UFC weirdness.

This card had everything.

Fast knockouts.

A dog cash.

A main event submission.

A groin-shot no contest.

Macau chaos, baby.

Final Card Vibe

The final card vibe is early-morning violence with a clean forecast slip.

This is the kind of card you wake up to and immediately start laughing because the picks actually cooked. I went finish-heavy, and the card gave finishes. I said Menifield had dog power, and he nuked the favorite. I said Kai needed a statement, and he got one. I said Sergei by finish, and he turned the fight into a 39-second workplace accident.

And Song?

Song Yadong put the old horse away.

Not with the KO I called, but with a damn guillotine, which somehow makes it even colder. The dude I was biased for delivered in the main event, in China, against a former champion, and now the card collection gets to breathe.

So the final scoreboard:

UFC Macau Forecast: 5-0-1
All-Time Violence Forecast: 19-3-1

That is not luck anymore.

That’s the forecast finding bodies.