UFC Macau Preview: Song Yadong Hunts the Old Horse, Su Looks for Violence, and the Forecast Goes Heavy on Finishes

The Violence Forecast is back, boys.

And this one came at a disrespectful-ass hour.

UFC Macau went down early, which means half of America was still dead asleep while dudes were throwing hands across the planet. I wasn’t awake for it, I haven’t checked the results yet, and that’s honestly the perfect way to do this. No spoiler brain. No box score scouting. Just vibes, reads, violence, and irrational loyalty to a fighter whose cards are already sitting in the collection.

The main event gives us Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo, a ranked bantamweight fight with real stakes. Song came in as a huge favorite around -600, while Figueiredo was sitting around +425 to +440 depending on the book. The rest of the main card had some heavy favorites too, especially Sergei Pavlovich and Kai Asakura, while Alonzo Menifield came in as the live dog against Zhang Mingyang. Odds are subject to change by sportsbook, but that’s the general board we’re working with.

Main Card Odds

The Picks

Sumudaerji by KO

We’re starting the main card with Su by knockout.

Alex Perez is tough, experienced, and not somebody you just walk through, but I like Su’s striking here. He feels like the cleaner striker, the sharper guy in the exchanges, and if he can keep this thing at range instead of letting Perez turn it into a greasy wrestling/pressure fight, I think he can crack him.

This is one of those fights where the underdog number makes it even more fun. Perez is the favorite on paper, but Su has that “one clean shot can change the whole damn night” energy.

Official pick: Sumudaerji by KO

Jake Matthews by Decision

Next up, I’m taking Jake Matthews by decision.

Matthews has been around forever, which is wild because he still isn’t old-old. He’s just one of those UFC veterans who feels like he’s been in the game since flip phones. He’s durable, experienced, and usually knows how to win minutes when the fight settles into a grind.

Carlston Harris is dangerous, especially if he can make things physical, but I think Matthews fights smart here. Stay composed, avoid the big mistake, win the cleaner stretches, and bank rounds.

Not every pick has to be a body bag. Sometimes you need the veteran to show up, do veteran shit, and win a grown-man decision.

Official pick: Jake Matthews by decision

Kai Asakura by Finish

I’m going Kai by finish here.

This is one of those spots where the UFC clearly wants to see what Kai can do with a proper showcase. Cameron Smotherman is game, but Asakura has real speed, real finishing instincts, and the kind of striking that can turn a fight ugly fast if his opponent gets caught hanging around in the pocket too long.

Kai doesn’t need to play around here. He needs to make a statement.

Pressure, speed, damage, finish.

That’s the lane.

Official pick: Kai Asakura by finish

Sergei Pavlovich by Finish

This one is violence in human form.

Sergei Pavlovich by finish.

Tallison Teixeira is big, unbeaten, dangerous, and absolutely not someone to dismiss like he’s just some random body getting fed to a monster. But Sergei is Sergei. The man throws like he’s trying to delete your bloodline. Heavyweight MMA is always chaos, and one mistake from either guy could end the night instantly.

But if we’re picking who lands the fight-changing shot first, I’m riding with Pavlovich.

He’s the cleaner destroyer. The more proven destroyer. The guy who has been standing in front of real UFC heavyweights and making them reconsider their career path.

This fight feels like it either gets weird fast or ends violently.

Perfect Violence Forecast material.

Official pick: Sergei Pavlovich by finish

Alonzo Menifield by Finish

Now we’re getting spicy.

Zhang Mingyang is the favorite, but I’m riding with Alonzo Menifield by finish.

Menifield is one of those dudes where the fight might not always be pretty, but the power is always there. He’s strong, explosive, and if Zhang gets too comfortable thinking this is just his bounce-back spot, Alonzo can absolutely ruin that plan with one grown-man connection.

This is the dog pick with teeth.

Zhang is dangerous too, no doubt. But at plus money, give me the guy who can make the fight ugly, force exchanges, and land something stupid.

Menifield doesn’t need to win a technical masterpiece.

He needs one moment.

Official pick: Alonzo Menifield by finish

Song Yadong by KO

Main event time.

And yeah, I’m biased as hell here.

I love Song Yadong. I collect his UFC cards. I don’t care who he fights. I want him to win. That’s not analysis. That’s emotional investment with cardboard evidence.

But luckily, the actual fight read lines up with the bias too.

Deiveson Figueiredo is a legend. Former champ. Dangerous everywhere. Explosive, nasty, experienced, and absolutely not some washed-up bum you can overlook. But at bantamweight, against a younger, faster, sharper Song, this feels like a rough assignment for the old horse.

Song has the speed. He has the power. He has the boxing. He can pressure without being reckless, and if he starts finding the timing, I think he can hurt Figgy bad.

We’ve already picked a bunch of finishes, so fook it, add one more to the pile.

Song puts the old horse to sleep one way or another.

Official pick: Song Yadong by KO

Final Violence Forecast

This card is finish-heavy as hell on my end.

Sumudaerji by KO
Jake Matthews by decision
Kai Asakura by finish
Sergei Pavlovich by finish
Alonzo Menifield by finish
Song Yadong by KO

That is five finishes on a six-fight main card.

Responsible? Maybe not.

Fun? Absolutely.

The Violence Forecast is not here to politely predict 30-27 decisions and safe little point-fighting chess matches. We're 14-2 baby, we’re here for cracked chins, heavyweights swinging lunchboxes, and Song Yadong sending the collection value to the moon.

Final Card Vibe

The vibe here is early-morning violence with international chaos.

Macau cards always have that weird energy. Different time zone, different crowd, different rhythm, and half the fans watching later like they’re avoiding spoilers from a Marvel movie.

But the card itself has heat.

Song gets the main event. Figgy gets one more chance to prove he’s still dangerous near the top of bantamweight. Pavlovich brings nuclear heavyweight power. Kai gets a statement opportunity. Menifield is live as hell as the dog. And Su starts the whole thing with upset KO potential.

This is the kind of card where you wake up, check the results, and either feel like a genius or immediately pretend the picks never happened.

Either way, the Violence Forecast rolls on.

Song by KO.

Bias included.

Lock it the fook in, boys.