Well, boys, the Violence Forecast was cooking.
And then Sean Strickland walked into the main event and kicked the damn stove over.
UFC 328 ended up being another strong night for the picks, with the Dead Roots Violence Forecast going 4-1 on main card winners. That moves the early UFC blog record to 9-2 overall between UFC Perth and UFC 328, which is still a damn good start.
But man.
That perfect 5-0 was sitting right there.
King Green hit.
Sean Brady hit.
Alexander Volkov hit.
Joshua Van hit.
Then Khamzat Chimaev lost to Sean Strickland by split decision and the whole room changed.
That’s MMA. Just when you think you’ve got the card by the throat, the sport turns around and headbutts you in the mouth.
The main event officially went to Strickland by split decision, with two judges scoring it 48-47 for Strickland and one judge giving it 48-47 to Chimaev. That means Sean Strickland is back on top, Khamzat takes his first real UFC disaster, and every single person who talked themselves into “Khamzat is just going to ragdoll him” has to eat a little crow tonight.
And yeah, I am right there eating it too.
I picked Khamzat by finish.
I thought he was going to drag Sean into the deep waters early, make it ugly on the mat, and eventually break him down with grappling, pressure, and violence. And early on, it looked like that script might be alive. Chimaev had grappling success, got to the body, had moments of control, and reminded everybody why he was such a heavy favorite.
But Strickland did what Strickland does.
He survived the scary shit.
He kept the jab working.
He made it awkward.
He made it longer.
He made Khamzat work.
And by the end, the judges saw enough to give Sean the belt.
That is a wild sentence after the way this fight was built.
All week, the story was bad blood. Chimaev kicking him basically in the nuts at the presser. Strickland talking shit. Dana saying the whole thing felt like one of the most intense pressers ever. Everyone expected nuclear violence.
Instead, we got something almost more interesting: a gritty, ugly, exhausting five-round title fight where Strickland refused to drown.
That is why MMA is so sick.
The guy everyone thought might get mauled ends the night holding the belt.
King Green Starts the Night Right
The Violence Forecast got rolling immediately with King Green taking out Jeremy Stephens in the first round.
Green submitted Stephens after hurting him, wrestling him down, and jumping on the opening once Stephens gave up the back. After all the talk about Stephens missing weight and coming in heavy, Green handled business like a pro and made sure the weight miss did not become the story.
That was a big one because this fight had chaos written all over it.
Two old dogs.
Two fan favorites.
Two guys who have been in wars forever.
One dude coming back from BKFC.
One dude in King Green who gives zero fucks about your résumé.
And Green smoked him.
That was not just a “winner hit.” That was a statement.
Sean Brady Puts the Buckley Hype in a Headlock
Then Sean Brady did exactly what he needed to do against Joaquin Buckley.
I know Buckley had momentum and scary power, but Brady showed why he is such a problem when he gets his hands on people. He controlled Buckley, took him down, dominated the grappling, and won a clear unanimous decision. CBS had the scores at 30-25, 30-25, and 30-27.
That was not cute.
That was not close.
That was Brady saying, “You can be explosive as hell, but if I turn this into my fight, you’re not playing your game anymore.”
That’s the kind of win that makes people re-check where Brady belongs in the division. Buckley is dangerous. Beating him like that is not nothing.
Volkov Gets It Done, Even If the Method Missed
Alexander Volkov was the next winner to hit.
Volkov beat Waldo Cortes-Acosta by unanimous decision, with the cards coming in 30-27, 29-28, and 29-28.
This was the one where the winner was right, but the method was off.
The pick was looking for Volkov to get the finish, and instead he had to take it to the judges. That happens, especially at heavyweight where one punch can flip everything, but sometimes the veteran just stays composed enough to stack rounds instead of forcing the kill shot.
Winner hit.
Method missed.
We take those.
A heavyweight fight going to decision is always a little annoying when you wanted fireworks, but Volkov did enough to bank the result and keep the Violence Forecast rolling.
At that point, we were 3-0.
The perfect night was alive.
Joshua Van Is That Guy, Buddy
Then Joshua Van walked in and made it 4-0.
Van stopped Tatsuro Taira in the fifth round to defend the flyweight title, and that one felt like a real star-building performance. The pick was Van by decision, but he said, “Nah, let’s make it violent,” and got the late TKO instead.
That’s a method miss I will gladly eat. He's a Houston boy after all.
Van was in a real fight. Taira had early grappling success, made him work, and gave him problems. But Van kept building, kept damaging, kept pushing, and by the fifth round he had Taira in trouble and finished the damn thing.
That was huge.
Not just because the pick hit. Because Van needed a performance like that. Van destroyed his fuckin' face. After the weird way he won the belt, there were always going to be people questioning how legit he was as champion. Fair or not, that cloud was there.
Tonight helped burn that cloud off.
He defended the belt.
He beat a serious challenger.
He got the finish.
He did it under pressure.
That is champion shit.
So now the Violence Forecast was sitting at 4-0.
Only Khamzat left.
And then MMA did what MMA does.
Khamzat Loses, Strickland Shocks the World, and the Perfect Card Dies
This was the miss.
Khamzat Chimaev was the pick. Khamzat by finish was the call. The logic made sense going in: elite grappling, terrifying pressure, physical dominance, and a style that seemed like it could drag Strickland into a nightmare. But instead pulls guard twice in the same fucking round.
The most dominant wrestler we've ever seen.
Smh.
But Sean Strickland is a nightmare in his own weird way.
He is not flashy.
He is not explosive.
He is not pretty.
He does not look like a video game character.
He just makes fights miserable.
And he did it again.
Strickland survived the grappling moments, kept the fight competitive, jabbed his way into rounds, made Chimaev work harder than he wanted to, and took a split decision to regain the middleweight title.
That’s a brutal miss for the perfect night, but it’s also the kind of miss you can respect.
Sean did what great fighters do. He answered the biggest question. He proved he could handle the early danger enough to make the fight go long. And once the fight went long, the Sean Strickland bullshit factory opened for business.
Jab.
Pressure.
Defense.
Trash talk.
Exhaustion.
Mental warfare.
Repeat.
Chimaev had moments, but he did not have his usual “I own your soul now” control for five full rounds. And against Strickland, if you do not break him, you still have to outwork him and outlast him. That is not easy.
So yeah, we missed the main event.
But if you’re going to miss one, at least let it be because Sean Strickland did Sean Strickland shit and pulled off a title-fight upset.
That's Murica' for you.
Final Violence Forecast Results
King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens
Pick: King Green
Result: King Green by first-round submission
> Winner hit
Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley
Pick: Sean Brady
Result: Sean Brady by unanimous decision
> Winner hit
Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Pick: Alexander Volkov
Result: Volkov by unanimous decision
> Winner hit
X Method missed
Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira
Pick: Joshua Van
Result: Van by fifth-round TKO
> Winner hit
X Method missed
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland
Pick: Khamzat Chimaev
Result: Sean Strickland by split decision
X Winner missed
*Insert bald eagle & F-22 noises*
Final record: 4-1 on winners.
Overall Violence Forecast record through two cards: 9-2.
That is a heater.
Not perfect.
Not clean.
But damn good.
The Big Takeaway
UFC 328 was a reminder that reading fights is not just about who looks scarier on paper.
Khamzat looked like the monster.
Sean looked like the guy walking into the storm.
But five rounds is a long time when the guy across from you refuses to break.
That is the difference between picking fights on highlights and watching the actual ugly details.
Strickland’s game is weird. He turns everything into a grind. He makes elite fighters look uncomfortable. He does not need to dominate every second to win a fight. He just needs to stay there, stay annoying, and make the other guy realize this is not ending when he wants it to.
Tonight, Khamzat could not get him out of there.
And once he couldn’t, the fight became a Sean Strickland fight.
That cost us the perfect card.
But it also gave the division a massive shake-up.
King Green looked sharp.
Sean Brady looked dominant.
Volkov handled the heavyweight work.
Joshua Van proved he is a real champion.
And Sean Strickland just dragged the middleweight title back into chaos.
So yeah, the perfect night died in the main event.
But the Violence Forecast still went 4-1, the all-time record still sits at 9-2, and the UFC blog heater is very much alive.
MMA kicked us in the teeth at the finish line.
We still cashed most of the damn card.
On to the next one.