UFC 328 Preview: Chimaev vs. Strickland, Bad Blood, Old Dogs, Heavy Hands, and a Full Main Card Violence Forecast

Here we go, boys.

UFC 328 is not sneaking in quietly. This card is walking into the room with its chest out, middle fingers up, bad intentions loaded, and a main event that feels like somebody locked two wolves in a shed and sold tickets to the screaming.

Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland is already one of the nastiest-feeling title fights in a while. The press conference was pure gasoline. The faceoff got physical. Dana White basically put the whole thing in the “yeah, this is one of the wild ones” category. And now after all the talking, all the weight drama, all the Strickland chaos, all the Khamzat pressure, we finally get the actual fight.

But the best part? This card is not just a one-fight meal.

The main card is loaded. The prelims are legit. Jim Miller is still out here fighting like he made a blood oath with the sport in 2008 and refuses to age like a normal human. King Green and Jeremy Stephens are opening the main card like two old dogs who both still think every fight should be settled in a phone booth. Buckley vs. Brady is a savage style clash. Volkov vs. Waldo is heavyweight danger. Van vs. Taira is a real title fight that deserves way more shine. And then the main event is just straight-up bad blood violence.

This is a proper Saturday night fight card.

Main Card Odds

Odds can move depending on book and timing, but here are the main card moneylines listed by CBS Sports via DraftKings as of May 8: Khamzat Chimaev -575 vs. Sean Strickland +425, Tatsuro Taira -162 vs. Joshua Van +136, Alexander Volkov -142 vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta +120, Sean Brady -170 vs. Joaquin Buckley +142, and King Green -425 vs. Jeremy Stephens +330.

For the full card context, UFC 328 goes down at Prudential Center in Newark, N.J., with the main card scheduled for 9 p.m. ET. The prelims are not weak either: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon is sitting on the prelim card, along with Ateba Gautier vs. Ozzy Diaz, Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Alvarez, and Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki.

And yes, Jeremy Stephens missed weight. Stephens came in at 160 for a lightweight bout against King Green, who weighed 155. The fight is still on at catchweight, with Stephens forfeiting 30 percent of his purse.

Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon: Can the Old Dog Do It Again?

Before we even touch the main card, Jim Miller deserves a damn paragraph.

This dude’s longevity is insane. At this point, Jim Miller feels less like a fighter and more like a landmark. He has been around forever, fought everybody, seen every era of the sport, and he’s still dangerous enough that you can’t just pencil him in as “old guy loses to younger pressure fighter.”

Jared Gordon is a real test. He’s tough, experienced, durable, and usually not the kind of guy who just hands you easy moments. The odds have Gordon as a strong favorite at -310, with Miller coming back at +250.

But can Jim Miller win again?

Absolutely he can.

That doesn’t mean he should be the pick. It means if Gordon gets lazy, if he gives Miller a scramble, if he leaves his neck sitting there like a free sample at Costco, Miller can absolutely snatch something. That’s the thing with guys like Miller. They don’t need to win every minute. They just need one mistake, one veteran read, one “oh shit” moment.

Would I be shocked if Gordon grinds him out? No.

Would I be shocked if Miller wins and we all sit there like, “Bro, how is he still doing this?” Also no.

That’s why he’s Jim Miller.

King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens: Old-School Violence With a Weight-Cut Cloud Over It

This fight is a banger before the bell even rings.

King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens is not some random opener. This is two older UFC dogs who have been through absolute wars. If you’ve been watching fights for a long time, this one hits different. These are names from the blood-and-guts era. Guys who have eaten shots, given them back, talked shit, stayed dangerous, and somehow kept finding their way into fights that make fans go, “Yeah, I’m watching that.”

Jeremy Stephens coming back after his BKFC run makes it even crazier. He went 3-1 in bare-knuckle, and the one loss came against Mike Perry, which is not exactly some embarrassing fall-off. Perry in BKFC is a different kind of demon.

But the missed weight is the bummer.

Stephens coming in four pounds heavy changes the whole conversation. You never want a fight this fun to have that cloud over it. And it’s even worse because King Green is the type of dude who does not care. Bobby does not strike me as the guy who hears “he came in heavy” and starts looking for excuses. He probably hears that and gets more pissed off.

The odds have Green as a massive favorite at -425, with Stephens at +330. But the weight miss makes this feel weird. On paper, Green should be the cleaner pick. Better rhythm, cleaner boxing, more recent UFC timing, and he’s the one who actually made the weight.

But Stephens is Stephens.

He hits like a damn truck. He’s probably going to come in strong. He has no reason to be cute. And if the weight miss means he’s physically fresher, that matters, even if it sucks.

This is the hardest pick for me emotionally because I love both these guys. Bobby/King Green is one of the realest fighters the sport has had. Jeremy Stephens is a walking highlight threat and a longtime savage. I want a war, and honestly, I think we get one.

Pick: KING Green by chaos, but this is damn near a coin flip emotionally.

Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady: Tank vs. Unit

This fight is nuts.

Joaquin Buckley is an absolute tank’ski. Explosive, powerful, fast, mean, built like somebody designed him in a lab specifically to throw bad intentions. When Buckley gets rolling, he’s terrifying. He doesn’t just throw punches. He launches shit.

Sean Brady is a unit too, though. That’s what makes this fight so interesting. Brady is not some soft grappler who falls apart when things get ugly. He’s strong, physical, and if he gets his hands locked and starts turning this into a wrestling-heavy fight, Buckley is going to have to work like hell.

The betting line has Brady favored at -170 and Buckley as the +142 underdog. The market has moved hard toward Buckley compared to where it opened; MMA Mania’s line tracker noted Brady opened around -300 while Buckley opened around +250 before that number tightened up significantly.

That tells you people are seeing what we’re seeing.

Buckley has the danger.

Brady may have the control.

For Brady, the path is obvious: close space, make Buckley defend takedowns, tire the arms, make him carry weight, and turn the fight into a grind. For Buckley, the path is also obvious: make Brady pay every time he enters, keep it standing long enough to unload, and put that grown-man power on him.

I’m sliding with Sean here.

Pick: Sean Brady by Dec.

Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta: Heavyweight Fuckin’ Clash

Heavyweights. Big boys. Big consequences.

Alexander Volkov is the more proven, more polished, more experienced heavyweight. He’s long, skilled, patient, and has been in there with real monsters. The odds have him as the favorite at -142, with Waldo Cortes-Acosta at +120.

Volkov can absolutely win this if he keeps range, picks his shots, makes Waldo reset, and avoids getting dragged into stupid exchanges. That’s the veteran route.

But Waldo brings pressure, athleticism, and that heavyweight “one sequence changes the night” energy. He’s not going to be scared of Volkov’s length. He’s going to walk into danger and try to make Volkov fight at a pace and space he doesn’t like.

Heavyweight fights are always a little cursed because one bad read and somebody’s soul leaves their body.

I think Volk finds that moment.

Pick: Volk by finish.

Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira: The Co-Main Deserves Respect

This fight is huge, and it’s kind of wild how much it’s getting overshadowed by the circus around Chimaev and Strickland.

Joshua Van is defending the flyweight title against Tatsuro Taira. Van and Taira both made 125 at weigh-ins, so the title fight is locked in. The odds have Taira as the favorite at -162, with champion Joshua Van as the underdog at +136.

That’s rare and interesting by itself: the champion as the dog.

And I get why. Taira is slick. He’s dangerous. He’s composed. He has the kind of grappling and control that can make a fight feel like quicksand. One mistake and suddenly you’re defending your back for half a round while your title starts slipping out of your hands.

But Van is different.

This kid has that thing. The violence, the pace, the confidence, the composure, and that Texas/Houston energy behind him. Foreign-born, Texas-raised since he was 12, putting on for his roots and the USA at the same damn time. There’s something easy to root for there.

This is a real test. Maybe the realest test. Taira is not coming in to play supporting actor in Van’s story. He’s coming to take the belt.

But I think Van passes.

The key is making Taira work every second. Don’t get stuck. Don’t accept positions. Keep the output high. Make the rounds messy enough on the feet that the judges remember who was creating damage and pressure.

Taira might have the cleaner control path, but I’m riding with Van in front of the American crowd.

Pick: Joshua Van by decision.

Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland: Real Enemies, Real War

Now the big one.

Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland.

Current UFC champion vs. former UFC champion. Undefeated destroyer vs. one of the weirdest, toughest, most mentally exhausting pressure fighters in the game. Chimaev made 185 officially. Strickland made 185 officially. The fight is on.

And yes, the scale drama has been all over the place.

People are talking. Sean has talked. Bryce Mitchell made videos claiming something was off. Chimaev has had weight issues in the past, so fans are already ready to believe the weirdest version possible. But officially, the man made weight. Whether people think it looked sketchy or not, the result is the result.

Fight is on.

The odds are massive: Chimaev is -575, Strickland is +425. MMA Mania’s tracker had Chimaev around -571 and Strickland around +426, with Chimaev opening at -400 and drawing a ton of support.

That is a lot of respect for Khamzat.

And honestly, I understand it.

I love Sean Strickland. I really do. He is ridiculous, offensive, hilarious, uncomfortable, tough as hell, and one of the few fighters in the world who can win a title fight by making an elite striker slowly lose his mind behind a jab and shoulder roll.

I picked Sean to beat Israel Adesanya when a lot of people thought that was crazy. That is still one of the best underdog reads you can have as a fight fan. Sean went in there, stayed composed, pressured Izzy, and made one of the cleanest strikers in the sport look uncomfortable for five rounds.

But this one is different.

Khamzat is not Izzy.

Khamzat is not going to stand there and have a pretty kickboxing match. He’s not going to float at range, feint, and let Sean walk him into a weird rhythm. Chimaev is going to come across the cage like somebody owes him money. He’s going to grab, drag, chain wrestle, smash, and make Sean carry him.

That is the problem.

Sean’s defensive grappling, toughness, cardio, and composure all matter. He might make this more competitive than people think. He might stuff more than expected. He might jab Khamzat coming in. He might make him work. He might even hurt him in a weird pocket exchange if Khamzat gets sloppy.

But over time, I think Khamzat gets what he wants.

And when Khamzat gets what he wants, things get dark fast.

Look at the résumé. Look at the names. Look at the dominance. This guy is one of the most physically overwhelming fighters we have seen in a long time. Not just good. Not just skilled. Dominant. There’s a difference.

Sean is the good ol’ American boy in this fight. He’s the guy a lot of people are going to be rooting for because he’s wild, fearless, and genuinely seems like he’d rather die than quit.

But rooting and predicting are not the same thing.

I’ll be rooting for Sean.

Deep down, I think Khamzat does what Khamzat does.

He drags Sean into deep waters early, but not the deep waters Sean wants. Not a five-round boxing grind. Not a jab battle. Not Strickland pace. Khamzat’s deep waters are body lock, mat return, half guard pressure, elbows, panic, back takes, and that feeling where the guy underneath realizes he is not getting up unless Khamzat lets him.

That’s the nightmare.

Sean will fight. Sean will talk. Sean will probably have moments. He might make Khamzat uncomfortable in spots. But I think eventually Khamzat gets him down, breaks the rhythm, and finds the finish.

Pick: Khamzat Chimaev by finish, most likely on the floor.

Final Violence Forecast

King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens: KING by chaos 
Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady: Sean by Dec
Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta: Volk By KO
Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira: Joshua Van by decision
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland: Khamzat Chimaev by finish

This card is insane.

You’ve got old-school UFC violence in Green vs. Stephens. You’ve got a tank vs. a grinder in Buckley vs. Brady. You’ve got heavyweight danger with Volkov and Waldo. You’ve got a real flyweight title fight that deserves more respect than it’s getting. And then you’ve got Chimaev and Strickland, two guys with real heat, real bad blood, and a title on the line.

This is the kind of card where the prelims could steal the show, the main card could go nuclear, and the main event could either be a dominant Chimaev mauling or one of the wildest upset attempts we’ve seen in years.

That’s why we watch this shit.

Not because it’s clean.
Not because it’s predictable.
Not because the sport makes sense.

Because every once in a while, the UFC gives us a card where every fight feels like it has a reason to exist.

UFC 328 has that.

Violence forecast: hot.
Main event hate level: nuclear.
Old dog energy: high.
Upset potential: alive.
Khamzat mauling probability: unfortunately also alive

Let’s ride.